What’s Going on With Wheat?

Ardent Mills to Close Two Flour Mills

Ardent Mills is carrying forward its plans to close two flour mills, one in Pennsylvania, the other in Nebraska. The company, knowing both facilities have longstanding historic and economic ties to their respective regions, says decisions were not made lightly. With the goal of strategically navigating global market shifts in the most efficient way possible Ardent Mills joins the ranks of food manufacturers recalibrating operations and refocusing portfolios. 

Stable supply and strong demand is good for any industry and can be a great indicator of economic health. But healthy momentum doesn’t mean there are fewer decisions to be made. Companies like Ardent Mills, who have been milling flour since the civil war, are calculating where they want to fit into the global trade machine and how best to achieve that goal even on the best days.

Wheat’s Shifting Markets

Like other grains, wheat is projected to be a strong crop heading into 2026; record setting even. Globally, despite drought conditions and natural disasters, both demand and production are expected to see an uptick largely inline with population increases.  Volatile markets like Russia, Turkey, and other Eastern European countries are stabilizing while emerging markets in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa are gaining momentum. The added competition changes the outlook for American wheat and is causing milling operations to consider the best approach to maintain a prominent position on the global stage.

Urbanization in Nigeria, Kenya, and South Africa is increasing demand for wheat and also for localized supply chains. For emerging nations aiming to produce more food domestically the goal is clear; shore up supply chain logistics and expand capacity. The more they do so, the less reliant they are on imported flour from Turkey and the United States. 

In Asia, consumer demand is shifting away from rice and towards wheat flour as a staple ingredient for noodles. Like many growing cities in Africa, Asian nations, and particularly Indonesia, have expanded domestic production of wheat and built enough mills of their own to begin claiming a larger portion of export markets.

Wheat’s Complex Supply Chains

Beyond competition from new flour mills in emerging nations, American wheat flour navigates a far more complex system from field to mill than ever before. Not all that long ago a single mill could source wheat from one location to produce a year’s worth of flour. Today mills often source from multiple climates, receive multiple varieties throughout the year, and have to make sourcing decisions based on extreme weather predictions and drought calculations. 

With each new shipment comes an expensive recalibration of machines that look very different from the wooden windmills we might conjure up in our minds.  Mill employees need specialized skills to perform tasks these days. And though wheat flour is considered a commodity crucial to food security around the world, American consumers have an ever shifting definition of health benefits.

The Future of American Wheat Flour

What are the Ardent Mills closers telling us about where American wheat flour is headed? As we are seeing in multiple food production sectors, deciphering what pays is of top priority. We know efficiency can create an edge for a company. Consolidation, of options or of production, can streamline operations by cutting costs and creating financial predictability. Perhaps Ardent Mills feels they have spread too thin and that scaling back will ultimately increase profitability.

In the U.S. and across the world, traceability and sustainability also pay. Mill closures could also be part of a shift in the direction of knowledge sharing. If the product is worth more because it comes with valuable information about sourcing and supply chain efficiencies, Ardent Mills may be willing to close mills and invest in technology. They don’t have to increase quantity, they just have to produce something that competitors are not offering; which could be transparency.

In the same vein, American consumers value quality. Ardent Mills may find its edge by producing the best wheat flour as opposed to the most wheat flour. Consistently delivering a high quality product is an appealing trait within global markets as well and could contribute to American wheat maintaining a prominent place as a respected producer. Ardent Mills may not be able to produce the cheapest wheat, but can they keep it affordable while also leveling up the quality? Mill closures are likely their attempt to do just that.