Deregulation Turns into a DOJ Probe

Has the American Beef Industry Lost All Stability?

The beef industry is a trifecta of players which include producers, packers, and consumers. In the U.S., there are close to 900,000 cattle operations contributing to beef production and approximately 2,250 meat packing facilities. Production supports the nearly 30 billion tons of beef consumed annually in America. As you have no doubt experienced first hand in the meat section of the supermarket while contemplating your weekly menu; when one point of the trifecta experiences change, the others soon feel the ripple effect.

Can all three players in the beef game win? The answer appears to have an elusive answer.

January of 2025 kicked off with conversations about deregulating multiple industries including beef. Amid the debate over the potential effectiveness of a deregulatory strategy, producers hoped for a less complex system, processors specifically requested fewer regulations, and consumers crossed their fingers for a path towards stable food prices.

Not even one year later recent headlines warn of beef prices reaching $10 per pound, farmers are frustrated and the Big Four meat packers are under investigation. The trifecta appears wildly out of whack.

Deregulation Isn’t a Magical Mechanism

Reducing regulations can break bottlenecks, degunk slow systems, and create competition.  But in the beef industry it hasn’t changed the fact that domestic herd numbers were low. Some of the causes of the declining herd are not regulatory in nature. Herd inventory is more than just an economic problem; it's a food security issue as well. In the long run, fewer regulatory hoops could support increased domestic beef production, but in the short term, Americans need to eat and they want to be able to afford their groceries staples. 

Deregulation acted as a wrecking ball, or a chance for the beef industry to redefine the rules and engage in healthy competition.  But, it also contributed to supply uncertainty doing little to change supermarket prices. The beef inventory void has been filled by increased imports. The Trump administration has aimed to achieve its goal of reducing food prices by broadening quotas, and lately, reducing tariffs on beef coming from both Australia and South America.

The import strategy is intended to exert some control over supply in an uncertain time. But, when you mess with supply you also mess with producers. Before too long, consumers could see a shift in the meat aisle thanks to imports however, price drops might be won with a disruption for American cattle ranchers who anticipate the value per animal unit to drop in 2026. 

If increased imports are used strategically in conjunction with targeted tariffs, quotas, and efforts to reduce farm and ranch inputs it could create the stability American ranchers need to feel comfortable enough to begin rebuilding cattle herds.  And, consumers would begin to see beef prices level.  In the short term, U.S. cattle producers will compete with foreign suppliers for domestic markets. The more we import the more potential there is for, not just American beef, but American agriculture to dismantle just as we’ve seen with fruit and vegetable production.

DOJ to Investigate Beef Industry

Is it better to pay a little more for our steak and treat ourselves less often if we know our money cycles into the domestic economy and our demand supports U.S. industry? Or should affordability and robust supply be the top priority?

Now the DOJ is looking at the third leg of this stool, the role meat packers play. Despite the fact that there are over 2,000 meat packing facilities in the United States, the Big Four meat processors handle 85% of beef cattle. As the quintessential middle man, they have a hand in purchasing negotiations for livestock as well as baseline consumer pricing. 

Calling the Big Four a monopoly is nothing new. In fact, the first Trump administration targeted the meat packing powerhouses hoping to dismantle the consolidated sector of the beef industry. Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign speeches included promises to use anti-trust lawsuits to address a potential monopoly. As of mid November of 2025 JBS, Cargill, National Beef and Tyson are collectively in the crosshairs again, this time with a DOJ probe.  Beef producers are getting less per cow while consumers watch supermarket prices go up. So far, deregulation hasn’t narrowed price gaps. Maybe the DOJ can.

Any supply manipulation by the Big Four could prompt the DOJ to protect producers and break apart packing companies.  Intentionally slowing slaughter lines, misuse of Alternative Marketing Agreements to control purchasing negotiations or block smaller operations wield illegal power over supply and demand. If the DOJ finds evidence of tampering it could be a huge step toward stability for American beef and deregulation would be free to achieve its goal of increasing competition and building back domestic cattle inventory.