Beef, is it What's for Dinner?

Exploring the Relationship Between Millennial Food Trends and the Beef Market

I couldn’t pass by a Bloomberg article titled, Too Busy to BBQ? Or, Too Broke? The beef conversation continues to be popular. Between screwworm quarantines and border closures, fluctuating input costs and labor pressures, the beef market seems pressurized to say the least. Just about everywhere I turn, there is an article reminding me that meat is expensive and beef in particular is on the rise. So, the idea that cattle markets might also be influenced by something social rather than tangible, that consumers are just too busy to be hosting backyard barbecues or grilling out with friends, is the kind of alternate perspective I love to explore.

Beef Market Baselines

Before we get into the variables of social trends, here's what we know is going on in the world of beef this summer. According to USDA reports, feeder cattle numbers are down by 1% from June 2024. Farm Progress reported that fed steer and fed heifer numbers were close to those of last year at this time. However, carcass weights have been higher, giving the impression that beef production in general is on the rise. And it could be. Feeder cattle numbers suggest that heifers are being held back for the purpose of herd rebuilding.

Beef prices have climbed this summer, in anticipation of seasonal demand increases for grillable cuts of meat and also as a result of feed costs, fuel prices, and labor shortages. A ribeye that would have cost you just under $10 per pound in March or April will probably cost you close to $14 per pound as we head into August. And, according to multiple reports on the cost of an average barbecue for a party of ten, a classic meal of meat, side dishes, sodas, and/or beer will be over 4% more expensive than it was in 2024.

Social Trends of Millennials

Serving ribeyes to the neighborhood is likely to bust the average American’s budget for hosting. Consumers might be more inclined to follow the guidance of cookout advice posts, which almost all include limiting the size of your dinner party, or at least getting an exact headcount, and choosing budget-friendly cuts of meat to serve to guests. But, as the Bloomberg article title suggests, are neighborhood barbecues even an American pastime anymore? 

In the 1950s and 1960s, neighborhood barbecues were central to communities. Backyards were potluck central, and fancy new grilling equipment was affordable. Even in the 1990s, backyard tables could be seen overflowing with enough food to feed whoever might show up. Today, younger generations spend 70% less time attending gatherings or hosting their own food-related get-togethers. 

Well before pandemics and quarantines, face-to-face interactions were in decline. It might not be just a Millennial thing, but a shift in how we think about food.  Once upon a time, not so long ago, harvesting and preparing food were activities that an entire community would undertake together. These days, the average American is far removed from the processes that put food on the table. Preparing and enjoying food is something to be done in isolation more than with the neighbors. There is plenty to explore here. Is technology creating an anxious and isolated America? Is it the fact that, these days, all of the adults in a home have a profession and there is no one to manage the social calendar anymore? Or, maybe food is so expensive that no one can share with their neighbors like they used to. You can find any combination of these variables at work.

But, all of this isn’t to say that younger generations don’t enjoy food. It’s actually the opposite. Studies show that Millennials in particular are the foodie generation. They don’t mind purchasing gourmet items or out-of-the-ordinary ingredients for the experience of a meal. Yet, according to the World Happiness Report, we should all be eating at least 13 meals a week in the company of other people; however, the average Millennial only eats about 8 meals with others. Sixty-eight percent of Gen Z and Millennials say that dining out solo is typical.

What Does This Mean for the Beef Industry?

My first thought is about quantity and quality. Are Millennial consumers even looking at value packs to make sure they get as many burgers in one box as possible? Or are they more concerned with the quality and premium cut of the beef they are purchasing? If they have zero intention of grilling out with friends, then from producing to packaging single-serving premium quality meat could be highly valuable in the meat department of the grocery store.

I also wonder how this trend will arc. If fewer mothers on the block are stocked up to feed the neighborhood regularly in the form of weekend barbecues and taco Tuesdays, will this help balance a small beef inventory? Ground beef typically makes up 50% of beef sales in the course of a year because it is versatile and can be purchased in quantity. If we remove the necessity for quantity and add a demand for premium products, then this percentage could change in the next decade.

While there are certainly a lot of moving parts to this equation, Millennials will soon represent the majority of consumers in the United States, and their purchasing decisions, trends, or generational norm will influence the production and sale of beef.