Are We Seeing an Uptick in Pest and Disease Outbreaks?

Farm Journal Foundation Releases Biosecurity Threat Data

Are we hyper focused on the wrong issues in agriculture? I do a fair amount of work examining how climate change could impact food systems and I know this: the impact is slow. The trajectory of change is one we can prepare for. Meanwhile, on my periphery, I’m aware of the scary reality that pests and diseases are fast moving problems that have the potential to do severe damage to food systems in a short amount of time.

The Farm Journal Foundation released a list of current and looming threats to global food supplies asking whether or not the U.S. should do more to combat outbreaks in our food systems.  It's a question formulated as a broad response to sweeping federal funding cuts for University labs and global research partnerships.  Can we afford not to develop coordinated plans to understand and address outbreaks in food production? And if the federal government isn’t allocating funds, will private parties step in to fill the gap?

How Much Do Outbreaks Cost U.S. Ag Annually?

According to the Farm Journal Foundation report, agricultural costs associated with crop pests and animal diseases could amount to $300 billion in extra spending every year if research and preventative measures decline. We either pay to fix a problem or we pay to prevent a problem.

It’s not hard to comprehend just how economically devastating an outbreak can be. We’ve seen it recently with the Avian flu and skyrocketing egg prices.  A sudden spike in egg prices in February of 2025 accounted for two-thirds of food price increases that month. At the time, the only method for combating Bird Flu was to cull a flock. Laying hens were particularly hit hard and with fewer eggs in supply consumers were forced to pay more for the typically affordable protein option. Economists estimate the dip in supply cost American consumers $1.4 billion in 2024 alone.

African Swine Fever (ASF) only took one year to decimate China’s hog industry.  The economic implications of the outbreak stretched far beyond China’s borders and reshaped global trade dynamics. ASF stripped small farmers of their livelihoods and changed the food production model within the country. All totaled, the fast spreading disease cost the country close to $112 billion in losses and $25 billion to modernize production and prevent future outbreaks.

Corn Ear Rot is a lesser known pest, but is classified as a current threat to food security and economic stability in the United States. Over an eleven year period, Ear Rot is believed to account for  $8.6 billion dollars in yield decreases. Alone, this number might seem like an acceptable loss over such a span, but coupled with losses from livestock outbreaks and other fungal crop pests it is easy to see how quickly losses can accumulate. Spending $300 billion a year to purchase imported commodities, rebuild devastated industries and cover costs associated with the disposing of contaminated food could be a reasonable figure. Not to mention what consumers will pay for limited supplies of food items.

How Safe is Our Food Supply?

Asking whether or not the U.S. should do more to understand and prevent food source outbreaks is more than just an economic question, it's also a question of how safe and secure our food supplies really are. Fungal infestations, viruses and pests like moths and larva are biosecurity threats. Funding research to safeguard grains from rot, rust and cysts or contain the spread of flu and respiratory diseases keeps our food in predictable supply, but also safe to consume.

Corn Ear Rot can produce mold that is toxic for human and animal consumption. Contaminated grains are hard to sell even with a wider array of market options. But, without consistent monitoring systems in place we could be putting unsafe food on supermarket shelves. The problem is often compounded by the fact that seed varieties can develop immunities to pest controls and treatment regimes. We can’t call our current data good enough because the variables continue to evolve and they can do so seemingly overnight.

Both Avian Flu and Screwworm had an immediate effect on food supplies.  In the case of Screwworm, the U.S. banned trade with Mexico prompting a rapid decrease in beef supply and creating volatile price dynamics. If Screwworm were to spread into the United States it could reduce the quality of food due to weight loss and decreased milk production.  It only took eggs one month to jump more than $1 in price point once Avian Flu began to sweep through flocks.

When we think of climate changes we worry that some day we won’t be able to produce enough food with the resources we have. But, pests and diseases are an entirely different issue. Here we worry that we will have the capacity to produce food, but not the means to keep it safe enough to eat.

Diseases Could Decimate Small Farms

The issue is further compounded when we think on a global scale. As we saw in China with the swine flu, small farms had little means of protecting themselves against the outbreak. Yet, it was the small farm model that supported China as the global leader in pork production. When the system fell apart the whole world felt the impact. The dynamic isn’t unique to China. Around the globe small farming operations produce our food supply.  

Abandoning research that leads to coordinated responses which can stop outbreaks from doing extensive damage leaves small farmers in a risky position and ultimately could put our food supply at risk.  What will our food systems look like without small farms? Continuing to partner with agricultural initiatives abroad strengthens local food reliance adding balance to a system  that could become increasingly consolidated if farmers have no means of learning about and preventing outbreaks.  

The question is, who will help fund continued research and the development of agricultural protocols that safeguard our food and where will this research take place? We’ve long relied on State Universities to conduct agricultural research.  Through private funding a portion of research is still being conducted, but schools are hesitant to expect an increase of federal grants.  However, consumers paying high prices for beef, eggs and other commodities might not balk at the idea of allocating tax money for the development of procedures that identify and prevent the spread of pests and diseases.  In the absence of federal funds we could see an increase in private companies within the food industry step up to the plate to build collaborative research programs.