Probing Mexico’s Strawberry Exports

Regional Analysis in the Anti-Dumping Case Against Mexican Strawberries

What do I chat about in between sessions at a Farm conference? This year it happened to be international trade and anti-dumping lawsuits. I had the opportunity to have several interesting conversations about Florida’s petition to impose anti-dumping duties on imports of Mexican strawberries. 

Florida’s petition is a request for regional industry analysis, a rarely utilized component of the Tariff Act which considers multiple regional economies under the umbrella of a specific industry infrastructure.  In other words, Florida is requesting that inquiries are made into imports of strawberries from Mexico during specific months of the year, to specific places in the United States and the impact those imports have on the production and sale of Florida grown strawberries.

As I’ve mentioned in previous articles, it's easy to think about trade agreements in terms of finding the best agreement for the most people.  We consider the nation as a whole. These types of deals look appealing from 30,000 feet, but have real impact on individual state economies and the communities within them when we take a closer look. Florida’s petition for a regional industry analysis could shed further light on the dynamic by forcing us to look at one portion of a national industry.

What is a Regional Industry Analysis?

This type of analysis hasn’t historically been a go to method because it requires extensive proof that there are clear market divisions within a national industry.  In this case, Florida must prove they have a competitive market that is separate from California and other strawberry producing states. This may be difficult to prove since California is the Salad Bowl of the United States and ships produce east of the Mississippi all the time. Florida must also prove that almost all of the strawberries they grow are sold into a specified region; in this instance, east of the Mississippi River.  Once enough evidence is collected to support regional market claims, the real investigation into dumping can begin. This is a different tactic than Florida tomato growers have taken in the past.

It's highly likely that the year 2025 will forever be remembered as the year of the tariff.  We may also look back to say 2026 was the point in time when anti-dumping litigation took a hard shift in the direction of regional investigation.  Rather than examining the relationship between one country and another, it's become clear that supply chains are interwoven across national borders and that national economies dependent on regional industrial stability are at the mercy of these intertwined supply chains.  The words “industry” and “market” are becoming increasingly distinct from each other.

Localized Industry Disruptions Impact the National Economy

Florida’s petition is also interesting because it forces us to consider how the flow of trade is altered even if it appears that only one small sector is suffering injury.  We’ve seen it in natural disaster situations, regulatory shifts and even when technology is introduced. In the case of strawberries, an influx of cheap fruit available throughout the eastern United States changes consumer behavior and expectations. 

When the imported strawberries perform better than the domestically produced supply, Florida growers experience a financial loss making it more difficult to kickstart a new growing season. Fewer input purchases then affect other regional businesses.  If most of the production is relocated across a border then there is an economic void left in the state of Florida made up of not just farmers producing less, but the input and supply chain infrastructure that supports them.

Can the void be filled? Could Florida combat competition by ramping up production of something else during the winter months that would provide jobs and keep the economic wheel of the region moving? Florida’s winter strawberry industry is worth roughly $1 billion in terms of economic contribution to the state, which no doubt ripples into the neighboring state economies that make up the region.

The agility of a state might depend on its geography.  If Florida’s strawberry industry is an important cog in the economic wheel of the region then the shock of imported strawberries retailing for, what Florida claims, amounts to 116% less in the United States than in Mexico is a negative blow for the south-eastern portion of the country. And yet, their proximity to market might also provide them the flexibility to weather industry shocks in a way that states like Oregon haven’t been able to.  Oregon's location and yield size have made strawberry production less feasible.

Even if the investigation results in increased duties placed on imports of Mexican winter strawberries, the regional focus of the probe will force consideration of an individual state's agility. In the long run, the concept of regional analysis adds a new dimension to understanding how localized shocks can impact the flow of national trade.