Its Easier to Export Sorghum to China than it is to Mexico

Would Mexico Increase Sorghum Imports if Supply Were More Predictable?

Corn and soybeans typically take center stage when we think about U.S. commodity markets, so much so that sorghum, the nutrient-dense, drought-resistant, livestock feed and biofuel ingredient, is often overlooked.  According to the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, though we export over $2 billion in sorghum, the lack of robust supply chains makes it difficult to deliver the hearty crops to our southern neighbors and tap into broader global markets. Without the assurance of those established routes and consistent demand, American farms haven’t been quick to diversify into sorghum.

Mexico favors American sorghum and would purchase more if the supply were more predictable and purchasing risks were removed. And, an increasing number of countries are looking to sorghum for its sustainable attributes. Yet, as we know, a commodity is only valuable if it can reach the consumers who demand it. What will incentivize more sorghum exports, and how will it impact the corn industry? Supply chain capacity certainly plays a role, as do subsidies and trade agreements. If sorghum’s value increases in the eyes of the consumer, supply stays high, and it can consistently be purchased at a reasonable price, it could give corn a run for its money.

Determining Sorghum’s Value

Sorghum’s benefits are extensive. Its makeup has been proven to build up and protect soil structures. It uses less water than corn and adapts more easily to drought conditions, earning it high marks for climate-smart and sustainable initiatives, something consumers continue to factor into purchasing decisions. Sorghum has a similar nutrient profile to corn and can be used in livestock feed blends for fish, hogs, dairy cows, chickens, and backyard pets. Also like corn, it has found a place as a gluten-free supergrain for human consumption.

Its versatility makes it desirable. The fact that it can be grown in regions less suitable for corn and can produce consistent yields even in drought years should give it an edge as sustainability becomes evermore a global goal. Yet, growers grow what consumers want, and consumers continue to favor corn in part because it's familiar but also because there is typically ample supply and transport reliability. Reliable supply also contributes to predictable purchase prices. Sorghum might be the more sustainable crop when it comes to feeding people and animals and even producing fuel from feedstocks, but a lack of predictability appears to devalue it.

Sorghum is typically cheaper to produce. Seeds sell at lower price points than corn, and sorghum has a greater per-acre yield than corn. Data from a Kansas State University study priced corn production at $894.92 per acre versus $648.00 per acre for sorghum. The study also examined the economics using sorghum and corn as feedstocks for dairy cows. Data revealed that feeding cows corn added a $0.20 cost per pound of milk produced. However, the biggest debate centers on the flavor of meat and the nutrient density of livestock products based on the type of feedstocks they consume. 

Sorghum Market Influences

Though it looks great on paper, sorghum might need to be sold well below corn prices in order to incentivize sales on a global scale and expand current trade relationships. It’s a risk American farmers are not likely to take under current commodity pressures. Sorghum’s value is largely based on how well corn and wheat markets are doing, as well as cattle herd numbers. In dry years biofuel manufacturers and livestock feed producers hope sorghum yields can offset poor harvests of other grains. Pinched supplies make for dramatic price shifts, and at times, China has paid more for sorghum imports than corn.

Lack of price predictability has also been an obstacle to increasing exports. The majority of sorghum exports already go to China, which purchased approximately $1.7 billion worth in 2024. Mexico's own sorghum crop production has been in decline in recent years, increasing its reliance on imports from the United States, which totaled close to $80 million in 2024. Though Mexico is closer to U.S. sorghum supplies, it has proved logistically easier to meet China’s strong demand than to focus on developing market reach into Mexico. 

Tariff wars caused exports to China to fall by 95% in the early part of 2025, while planting in the U.S. increased.  Farmers could be stuck with surplus crops if China continues on this trajectory. Increasing trade with Mexico is only feasible if supply chain logistics become more efficient and Mexico’s farmers have more incentive to purchase sorghum. In the fall of 2024, grain shipments traveling by rail from the U.S. to Mexico were suspended in direct relationship to Mexico’s Ferromex capacity constraints. Border bottlenecks only added to the perception that sorghum was a less reliable option than corn for livestock feed.

The Future of Sorghum

Despite the fact that sorghum trade is hampered by supply chain logistics hiccups and tariff negotiations, American farms see a bright future for the sustainable grain and have increased planting by 4% in 2025. The belief that sorghum will come into greater demand is supported by a partnership between Producer Ag and TEMCO for the sake of ramping up sorghum shipping capacity at the Port of Houston. Together, they have directly connected southern sorghum farmers with global markets. 

The capacity increase allows for more consistent contract bidding and competition. Producer Ag and TEMCO have their eyes on India and other emerging markets in Africa and Asia as future buyers. While Mexico and China turn to Brazil and Russia for sorghum, the fact remains, both countries rely heavily on imports of the commodity. If the United States can continue to build shipping capacity and competitive pricing, it will be tough for Mexico and China not to purchase the American sorghum.

American farmers are also banking on sorghum continuing to prove a more sustainable crop than corn.  Not only do they need to diversify to include more sorghum crops for the sake of soil health and fewer drains on resources, but in the long run, other countries will opt to use sorghum for biofuels and livestock feed for the sake of meeting climate-smart initiatives.