Is Black Friday Going Out of Style?

Consumer Spending Trends to Impact Supply Chains

Consumer shopping trends suggest the average American can’t afford to wait until Black Friday to start their Christmas shopping. Why? According to a Bankrate survey, close to half of Americans started shopping before Halloween for two reasons. One, they believed gifts will be more expensive this year. And two, they are worried the gifts they want to purchase won’t be available if they wait too long.

If you’ve avoided Black Friday like the plague then the idea of it phasing out of the holiday lineup probably doesn’t disappoint you. But, if you happen to work in an industry that leverages the popular shopping day to boost its bottom line then you might be paying attention to the not so subtle spending shifts happening and how they are affecting inventory decisions.

Holiday Shopping Trends to Keep and Eye On

According to a ConsumerWise survey the “timid” consumer mindset stems from multiple years of inflation prices. In action, this mindset is driving shoppers to hunt for the very best deal. If a beloved brand is offering splurge items at discounted prices or tacking on an added benefit with the purchases, consumers tend to stay loyal to the brand. In order to find and take advantage of deals shoppers are willing to start searching for them earlier.

ConsumerWise data also suggests consumers are weighing necessities against discretionary spending. Twenty-twenty five could be the year of the practical gift. In the same vein, gift cards are expected to be popular. A gift card frees up the giver from having to pay for shipping fees. They also give the receiver options. A gift card to a broad marketplace, like Target, or a generic Visa card allow a person to purchase necessities like groceries and toiletries, or luxury items they might not have budgeted for.

The very concept of a luxury item is morphing as well. If trends from December 2024 continue into this holiday season, treating your friends and family to a dinner out, an experience or a health and beauty item is an acceptable indulgence gift. And of course, these gift decisions are being made sooner rather than later by consumers who are watching for the opportunity to snag a deal.

Retailers Pivot to Match Consumer Spending

If the chaotic, flash deal driven Black Friday we’ve known may well be on its way out of style what does this mean for retailers? Quarter four sales spikes are leveling out and even crossing back into quarter three. Retailers with a fine tuned strategy for building inventory and promoting a rush of post Thanksgiving shopping are learning to pivot with long term promotions and real time analytics.

Successful retail operations have already rolled out holiday deals without pushing Christmas into the aisles before consumers are ready to see it. Without Black Friday as a hard and fast deadline, retailers can leverage long-term promotional strategies that maintain a steady stream of consumers; take or leave the holly in the marketing material.

In theory, a longer shopping season could be an advantage. Surveys report that shoppers plan to spend the same amount of money they did last year, meaning retailers will have to offer multiple deals to multiple audiences if they want to capture the trickling in of consumers. However, multi-layered marketing strategies to support evolving promotions is complex.

Offering real value deals and communicating those deals to both the consumers who want to shop early and those who enjoy the confining spending to the holiday season also tests the capabilities of supply chains. From determining inventory needs, to storing products, to staging and marketing the build up to holiday shopping is a logistically complex season and one that can require months of preparation.

These days mapping out a plan and setting it in motion isn’t enough. Black Friday could still be one of the biggest spending days of the year for consumers. But, the retailers who win the most sales this season will likely be monitoring consumer activity more closely and have the infrastructure to pivot quickly as needed.

Companies using AI and analytic technology are better equipped to attract micro groups of consumers over a long period of time through personalized marketing. However, the biggest question this year could be, who will have the most flexible supply chain? Boosting inventory just in time for a unique promotion without overdoing it gives retailers the potential to maximize the elongated shopping season but it also requires more manpower hours from IT teams, to transport personnel to in-store staff.